Politics overload.

Posted 8 Jan 2011 by Walaa Idris

Ballot Box

In the past, I have campaigned in many by – elections form the surprise quick dash from behind that nobody saw coming (not by that much anyway), Crewe and Nantwich to the classic hand over everybody knew it was in the bag, Henley, or the boy that was close, Bromley and Chislehurst. And of course the famous we really did not need this now, Ealing Southal, and let’s not forget I’m just proving a point here, Haltemprice and Howden.

With them as with most by- elections, a week before polling day things were somewhat clear and both sides – even if they did not publicly admit it – had some idea which way the chips will fall on the day. However, not this time! The Oldham East and Saddleworth is every party’s nightmare and unless something changes in the coming couple of days it’ll be an anxious week for all involved.

It is also a by- election full of extremes, some of the ones I heard repeated many times yesterday came form people who ordinarily would not vote Tory – because they never did – but will vote for Kashif Ali this time. On the other hand there were those who only voted Labour but will vote for Elwyn Watkins because they are disgusted by Labour now. And there are those who are so disillusioned with politics that they won’t even bother voting all together. There is also a strong constituency who believes that no self respecting Northerner will vote anything but Labour and will only vote for Debbie Abraham.

Judging by what our saw and heard yesterday, Oldham is evenly split three ways with a fourth sizeable group of – I‘m not voting this time because I’m tiered of politics and politicians!

4 comment(s)

Paul

Paul
8 Jan, 15:26

The bookies see it very differently though and not a three way split at all

For 1 pound you can win

Con 43 pounds
Lib 5 pounds
Lab 23 pence

Labour heavily odds on favourite, unless the gentlemen of the turf are completely wrong of course

Mancman10

Mancman10
8 Jan, 23:10

Me think Wal is being the faithful party loyalist here but what a load of rubbish – 3 horse race ahem I THINK NOT come on Wal BE HONEST!

Paul

Paul
9 Jan, 11:20

After the recently released ICM and Populous polls for 1 pound you can now win:

Con 80 pounds
Lib 10 pounds
Lab 9 pence

I think the turnout will be low especially for Labour and more so for the LibDems and that many Tories will vote tactically to keep the reds out (and rightfully so) but not enough to make up the difference

It’s not worth risking a pound for 9 pence but I think the reds have this one in the bag however much they do not deserve it

David Morris

David Morris
10 Jan, 11:31

I didn’t know you campaigned in my constituency (Haltemprice & Howden). I remember that by-election well. It was obvious who was going to win and, to this day, I still think it was a colossal waste of time and money.

I am finding the Oldham East and Saddleworth by-election hard to predict. It’s always been Labour, but Woolas only had a small majority – which indicates support for his party is disappearing. However, a new candidate could mean a fresh start.

The thing is, there is much more publicity relating to the Conservative and Lib Dem campaigns. That could help both candidates greatly.

I would say the centre-left attitudes of that area would help Elwyn Watkins, but the Lib Dems have taken an unfortunate beating in the polls recently.

Kashif Ali could end up doing very well and finishing at least second.

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