Why is Oldham important!

Next week’s by- election, of Oldham East and Saddleworth, is set to be the political event of 2011 – well, at least until something bigger hits Westminster and takes center stage. It isn’t huge because it’s a three way marginal, or because of the controversial manner by which it came about but because it’s a big test to everyone, the politicians and the public alike!

Both the LibDems and the Conservatives are on the same boat, if they win it’s the public’s seal of approval, that although they too dislike the cuts they understand their need, their necessity and are happy with the direction the coalition is currently taking. Confidence, especially amongst the unenthusiastic members on both parties will be boosted giving both leaders some comfort, a little breathing space and some room to maneuver.

However, if Labour holds Oldham, then Ed Miliband will save face, a Labour hold will give him the confidence he didn’t quite receive during his shock election as party leader. Also winning for Labour will bridge the gulf his leadership caused – it will boost both his and his party’s moral and the party’s confidence in him. But will winning change the way Labour operates – I doubt it – they will continue to oppose everything the coalition do and say and call it ‘effective opposition’. While we all know there is a new game with new rules but somehow Labour have yet to read that memo!

The public test is simple and it is not in who they’ll elect but how many will bother to turn up to vote next Thursday!

On a personal note I will be in Oldham all of tomorrow – I look forward to seeing many of you on the campaign trail, and if you haven’t yet been try to make it this weekend or next week. There are only 2400 votes in it, we have everything to work for – let’s return Kashif Ali to parliament next week.