In a few hours the polls will close on the Hampshire by- election of Eastleigh. The past three weeks have proved a week is indeed a long time in politics. In less than a month we had every possible political rivalry and trickery tossed at the campaigns and now their results are only a few hours away.

There are three possible outcomes and each has a different yet significant effect. Here is my take on them. The first outcome is a LibDem hold. The second a Tory win and the third UKip will pull a surprise protest win.

Going backwards, UKip winning will be good for the Coalition, because it will take the conflict pressure from the government while at the same time remind the two coalition partners to get their act together. The Tories need to unite and stop bickering, work as a team and remember what makes their party attractive is the main thing they seem to constantly be fighting over, and that is being a broad church – a home for diversity cemented in equal core values and beliefs. The reason Cameron weekly polls better than his party, is because he appeals to people inside and outside the party, and that is a good thing. Stop fighting it. On the other hand Libs need to get their house in order, sort out who said what when and not lose their nerve under pressure, or lose sight that outside the village of Westminster there is respect and appreciation for the party’s patriotic stance. Capitalize on it.

A Conservative win, is a short term victory for the party. It will boast moral for a few days but will damage the coalition and might even irreparably damage the Liberal Democrats. A fate probably cherished by a number of Tories, but it’s bad for the country, the economy, the reforms programs currently underway and will be an all-round failure that will only, in the long run, benefit the Labour Party. And that can never be a good thing.

However, a LibDem win is the status quo win. Plus it is good for the Libs; it will shut the media up, rise confidence in Nick Clegg inside and outside the party. Good for the Coalition, and the works planed by the two partners can carry on undisturbed to the end of this parliament.

I don’t feel disloyal about my feelings; because I believe during adverse times, such as times of wars and economic hardships, stability is key, which is why if my party does not win Eastleigh tonight I will be disappointed but at the same time relieved that things will stay their course until 2015.

Is it just me or is everything about the Lord Rennard scandal extremely suspect? Although not a current matter suddenly it’s the centre of all news – seems within hours it was everywhere and on every tongue. I just hope there is no injustice carried out by the media, and in their insatiable attempt to damage Clegg and the Libs they did not do a Mitchell. We all remember too well what happened there – an innocent man hounded out of office only to later discover none of it was true. And although he was pushed out forcefully and publicly by many, he is now left quietly to repair the damage on his own.

But, were the LibDems to lose tomorrow because of this scandal, and the Conservatives not to win because of the AAA rating – then who will win? The surprise winners will of course be the beneficiary of the protest vote gathered from both parties, UKip and not Labour. Besides lack of trust in their economic abilities and running the country, Labour never wins in the South just as the Tories find it a challenge winning up North.

Losing Eastleigh, a council 99% controlled by the LibDems – in Craig Revel Horwood’s words is a ‘DI-SAS-TR’ and puts Clegg in serious trouble. Tories not winning is a slap in the face and the road to a possible 2015 defeat, also a very serious matter. Just like 2010 was fought via media, this by-election is as good as decided by them. They wanted a coalition and got it, now they want Clegg out and Eastleigh is how they are going to do it.

It doesn’t take a genius to see this by-election is media charged and pretty much very little else. From the start they wanted one outcome, the Lib Dems to lose and Clegg to pay for it. When Chris Huhne’s lying and coercing his then wife to do the same did not have the desired effect, out of nowhere appeared a sex allegation (the ultimate political downfall) complete with a cover up and police questioning. Add to that the daily calls, of course by the media, for Lib Dem MPs (specifically female) to come forward with what they might know!

The whole thing is just bizarrely painful to watch. But I guess that’s what politics is all about these days. And we wonder why decent folks don’t want anything to do with it.